The world is not cutting greenhouse gas emissions fast enough and is not meeting climate targets. Scientists are pushing for more ambitious plans to deliver on the groundbreaking promises made in Paris eight years ago.
For the first time, nearly 200 countries meeting at the COP28 climate summit will assess how far they have come in meeting their climate change commitments as part of a “global stocktake.”
The UN describes the stocktake as a kind of inventory to assess where the world stands in terms of achieving the goals of the 2015 Paris Agreement.
One thing will be clear to all countries before the conclusion of COP28: the world is not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, a key target set in the Paris Agreement at COP21.
Another issue that will be central to the summit agenda is the future role of fossil fuels and whether countries should commit to phasing out carbon-emitting coal, oil and gas.
At COP26 2021 in Glasgow, countries agreed to phase out coal, but they have not agreed to phase out all fossil fuels, and some of the biggest CO2 emitters have made little progress towards the goal.
At previous COP climate summits, rich countries have promised financial support for developing countries that bear the brunt of catastrophic disasters related to climate change, but scientists and activists say no concrete action has yet been taken.
Katerina Brandmayr, director of policy and translation at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, highlighted some key developments in how the world has responded to the climate crisis.
In 2013, the policies and commitments of the time were expected to result in warming of 3.7°C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century. Temperatures have dropped since then, last year being around 2.7°C.
“Country commitments and policies have improved, but we are still not on the right track,” the doctor said. Brandmire. I.
“We need stronger and more ambitious targets to support and sustain efforts to limit global warming.”
The Paris Agreement target is 1.5°C
The report, published in September following a technical stocktaking phase that will guide policy decisions taken at COP28, concluded that there is a “fast-shrinking window of opportunity to increase ambition and existing commitments to limit warming to 1.5°C above.” level 28 years ago.” Industrial level.”
Global greenhouse gas emissions rose 1.2 percent between 2021 and 2022, according to the UN emissions gap report. greenhouse gases. Percentage of global emissions.
The report, published on November 20, analyzes how countries’ planned actions to combat climate change compare with what is needed to achieve global climate goals. These commitments were found to prepare the world for a temperature rise of 2.5°C to 2.9°C.
“Even in the most optimistic scenario examined in this report, the probability of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is only 14 percent, and various scenarios leave open the high probability of limiting global warming to 2°C or even exceeding 3°C. . the report says.
Transition away from fossil fuels
The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) found that the 20 largest fossil fuel producers collectively plan to produce 110 percent more fossil fuels by 2030 than would be compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 69 percent more. than would be compatible with 2°C.
These countries – Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, United Arab Emirates, UK and USA – accounts for 82 percent of production and 73 percent of consumption of the world’s fossil fuel reserves.
In its report on the production gap last month, UNEP said none of the 20 countries had committed to cutting coal, oil and gas production in line with limiting warming to 1.5C. India, Indonesia and Russia have planned significant increases in coal production, while the US, Brazil and Saudi Arabia expect oil production to rise annually.
The UK has announced plans to issue more than 100 new permits for oil and gas exploration in the North Sea, drawing the ire of green campaigners who say it contradicts the UK’s target of cutting greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.
While many climate-vulnerable countries are pushing for a final COP28 agreement that would commit countries to phasing out fossil fuels, the G20 failed to agree on the issue at its July summit, with countries such as Russia saying they would make that commitment , rejecting the exit from fossil fuels. outside.
Dr Brandmayr said oil and gas expansion was “going in the wrong direction” and the UK plan was “contrary to what the science shows and inconsistent” with the Paris 1.5C target.
She added: “Concerted efforts are needed to rapidly move away from fossil fuel production and consumption.”
Like many other countries, Britain has struggled to justify new oil and gas licenses to boost domestic energy supplies after the war in Ukraine and the Covid-19 pandemic left many countries struggling with high fuel prices.
Dr Brandmayr said the most effective way for Britain to strengthen its energy security is to “double down” on a system based on renewable energy, which is cheap and can be produced locally.
There are positive signs that countries are expanding renewable energy production, the doctor added. Brandmeyer using the example of China.
Although China is a large producer and consumer of coal, it has made enormous progress in the use of renewable energy. The country is on track to double its wind and solar power capacity by 2025 compared to 2030, and domestic coal production is also expected to decline sharply between 2025 and 2030. 2030 and 2050, in line with the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.
Financial support for developing countries
At COP15 in 2009, developed countries pledged to provide $100 billion in climate finance annually to developing countries by 2020, but this goal has not yet been achieved, the UN said.
Data from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shows developed countries invested US$83.3 billion in 2020, rising to US$89.6 billion next year but still below the US$100 billion target pledged in Cop15 time.
Promises by rich countries to help poorer countries adapt to climate change have weakened, and the deficit is now 50 percent higher than UNEP previously estimated, the agency said last month.
UNEP researchers in this year’s Adaptation Gap Report found that the estimated cost of fully preparing low-income countries was about $387 billion per year, while the total resources available for the effort were just $21 billion.
One of the main problems with financing is that money is increasingly being provided in the form of loans rather than grants, creating a debt burden on already struggling economies.
“This is being discussed as a new target beyond 2025, with discussions about how we can enable international financial systems to support developing countries,” the doctor said. Brandmire.
Source: I News
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.