If Hamas wanted to terrorize Israel, provoke a violent response, and increase the likelihood of what it calls an “forever war” with the Jewish state, then the barbaric attack on October 7 could be seen as an “eternal war” as part of those measures. happiness.
But as Israel resumes its brutal campaign to eliminate Hamas, some are questioning whether October 7 was a grave mistake, even by its own twisted criteria. Has the Islamic militant group completely miscalculated, provoking a retaliatory strike so devastating that its own survival is at stake?
Reports that senior Hamas leaders in exile were unaware of the attack lend some credibility to the claim. Moussa Abu Marzouq – the second-highest-ranking official in the Hamas politburo in Doha, Qatar – said Hamas political leaders did not receive news of the attack until the early hours of October 7.
But Marzouk also said he and other Hamas politicians approve of the overall strategy of the attack, including its scale and ambition, although he does not know the final details.
At least one Israeli scholar, Avishai Ben Sasson-Gordis, fears the situation may even be a win-win situation for Hamas. He believes that Hamas political leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar and other Hamas leaders who planned and launched the attack may view their own death and the destruction of the Gaza Strip as a price worth paying to restore the Palestinian cause to end the international spotlight. and undermine the growing rapprochement between Israel and the Gulf states.
The Gaza massacre was necessary to “change the equation,” Khalil al-Hayya, a member of Hamas’ senior leadership, told reporters. New York Times.

“I hope that the state of war with Israel on all borders will become permanent and that the Arab world will support us,” Hamas media adviser Taher El-Nunu said.
Sasson-Gordis says: “Even if Israel succeeds in eradicating Hamas as a political and military force in Gaza, the October 7 attack will achieve that goal.”
And he points out that if Israel fails to completely defeat Hamas, Sinwar or one of his colleagues could rebuild its military power: “Hamas will be added to the list of insurgent movements threatened by the integration of political and military power achieved.” “Leading to an Effective Fighting Force.”
However, other observers believe Hamas made two fatal errors in its judgment.

“It misjudged Iran’s willingness to engage and support him. “Iran did not do this,” said Professor Uri Bar-Joseph, a national security expert at the University of Haifa. “From Sinvar’s point of view, yes. [7 October] It was believed that this action would trigger a major war in the Middle East involving Hezbollah and Iran.”
He also notes that moderate Sunni Arab states such as Egypt and Jordan and even the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia would be happy to support Hamas as a new proxy for their common arch-enemy Iran.
Bar-Joseph also believes that Hamas underestimated the intensity of Israel’s response, as it never expected it to cause such a massacre on October 7.
“The country overestimated the level of military resistance it would face when it launched the Oct. 7 attacks,” he said. “If Israel had one tank battalion ready for action on October 7, things would have been completely different. But the IDF was caught sleeping.”
He added: “I think that when this war is over, Hamas will no longer rule in the Gaza Strip.”
However, the 87 percent approval rating in the West Bank may encourage Hamas leaders.
But Bar-Joseph says support for Hamas is inversely proportional to the optimism of ordinary Palestinians. “If significant progress was made towards a political solution, support for Hamas or the Hamas cause would quickly decline,” he says.
He is not the only one who believes that the final victory over Hamas can only be political.
Source: I News

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