In a gloomy January, the outlook for the year looks grim, given wars in Europe and the Middle East and widespread economic difficulties.
Perhaps the darkest cloud for many is the unthinkable possibility of Donald Trump returning to the Oval Office.
But there are very good reasons to believe that Trump will not win re-election and that the world will be saved – or at least given a reprieve from the evil forces of climate change denial and authoritarianism.
Economy
If presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden wants to defeat Trump, Americans will have to be more pleased with the incumbent’s economic leadership, in keeping with the time-tested adage: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
So far, according to the American public, a strong US labor market and growing investment cannot compensate for a terrible two-year period of inflation. Most Americans under 45 have never experienced a price hike. And younger voters have been hit harder than older Americans, whose Social Security payments rose significantly this year by 8.7 percent.
One commentator, John LeBoutilier, a former Republican member of the U.S. House of Representatives, predicts the picture will become clearer for Biden in the coming months: “As 2023 comes to a close, consumer confidence is rising and holiday shopping is soaring.” He wrote. on the conservative website Messenger.
“So expect hiring to catch up by mid-2024, with most Americans feeling more optimistic about the economy… As perceptions of the economy continue to improve, the term ‘Bidenomics’ will return as a key part of presidential policy.” – electoral strategy.”
If so, Biden’s re-election prospects will increase dramatically.
Impeachment plans failed
Republicans are planning a new political attack on Biden in the form of a hateful and vindictive impeachment.
The Republican-led House of Representatives will pursue the plans despite a lack of evidence of crimes committed by Biden, in retaliation for the two impeachment trials of presumptive 2024 Republican nominee Trump.
Many American political experts believe that the Republican investigation into Biden will backfire.
According to Thomas Gift, director of the Center for US Policy at UCL: “At the moment it looks like an investigation in search of a crime, and the real danger is that the Republican Party will be perceived as overreaching.”
“If there’s one lesson we can learn from recent history, not just from Trump but also from Clinton, it’s that presidents’ approval ratings do improve during impeachment. There is good reason to believe the same will happen to Biden.”
Republicans’ desperate attempt to push through corruption charges against Biden will become even more difficult as Democratic lawmakers released evidence Wednesday that Trump has received at least $7.8 million from foreign companies, including hostile states, during his time in office. like China. This is exactly the kind of dirty work Trump supporters are trying to pin on Biden.
Trump ‘not immune’ from prosecution
What about Trump’s fate? Opinion polls late last year showed him nearly 10 points ahead of Biden and ahead of the incumbent in five of six swing states. This shocked Democrats – and much of the Western world, given Trump’s disdain for NATO and international institutions and his increasingly dictatorial policies.
Biden supporters noted that a year is a long time in politics. And Trump faces a tsunami of civil penalties and criminal charges that threaten to destroy his business and send him to prison.
Most legal experts expect the D.C. Court of Appeals and even the conservative-dominated Supreme Court to undermine Trump’s desperate legal ploy by arguing that his former presidency gives him immunity from prosecution.
This is where the fun and games—and Trump’s misery—will really begin.
Just two months later, on March 4, he will stand trial on the most serious of the 91 charges against him, conspiracy to overturn the 2020 election.
LeBoutilier notes that Trump is “scared—or should be—scared of this case because it is very likely that he will be convicted of four felonies.”
He notes that special prosecutor Jack Smith “will have much more evidence against Trump, both in this case and in the case of the stolen documents at Mar-a-Lago, than the media and the public realize.”
Lawyers agree. Trump “has a very good chance of being convicted on one or more of the 91 charges,” former prosecutor Glenn Kirchner said Jan. 1.
A day later, Harry Litman, another former prosecutor, told MSNBC: “All signs point to terrible financial damage or loss of freedom.
But polls show that if Trump were convicted of a crime, 6 percent or more of voters in battleground states would cast their ballots against him, a crucial shift that would worsen his electoral prospects.
Adding to the political damage, a decision could come in February on the amount of fines Trump will have to pay in a civil fraud case in New York. Fines could put him out of business.
Trump could run away or make a deal
Starting March 4, Americans will see Trump sitting in the federal courthouse in Washington for six to seven hours a day. In criminal cases, the presence of the suspect in court is mandatory. Perhaps he should do this for two months and keep his mouth shut the entire time. In the meantime, he will be contemplating the possibility that the judicious Judge Tanya Chutkan, who has already handed down harsh sentences to the rioters on January 6, 2021, will bring him to his knees for years.
Perhaps he wants to avoid torture and humiliation by getting back on his feet before the test begins. LeBoutilier doubts Trump will enter a D.C. courtroom. “He will either fall ill and be unable to stand trial, or he will make a deal to avoid jail time,” he wrote.
“A plea deal would be consistent with Trump’s old ways. He is completely ruined by civil affairs, and then, at the last minute, he agrees. This is exactly what he will do in this case: he will make a deal in which he will plead guilty and withdraw from the election campaign in exchange for guarantees that he will not go to prison. If he faces three more criminal trials, he could very well agree to a “universal plea agreement” that would keep him out of jail in exchange for a guilty plea and guilty plea to all charges.
Patricia Crouse, a political science professor at the University of New Haven, agrees. “I have long believed that Trump would somehow find a ‘way out’ that would allow him to leave the election with his reputation intact, at least among MAGA people,” she says.
Some will say that this would be a denial of justice. Remaining GOP leaders Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley could see their chances of defeating a weak incumbent.
But compared to the prospects of the Trump II regime, Christmas appears to have come early.
Source: I News
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.