Islamic extremist attacks in northern Mozambique fell by 71% in 2023.

Violence by Islamic extremists in northern Mozambique fell by 71% in 2023, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) said on Wednesday, linking the advance to an offensive by SADC and Rwandan forces.

The total number of violent incidents recorded by the North American Analytical Institute in northern Mozambique was 127, resulting in 260 deaths. However, “850 thousand internally displaced persons have still not returned home,” ACSS writes.

“This follows last year’s offensive by SADC and Rwandan forces deployed in July 2021 to help Mozambique’s army push out extremists from the cities of Palma and Mocimboa da Praia,” the Washington-based institute said.

These forces “managed to regain control of 90% of the territory” controlled by Ahlu Sunna wa Jama’a rebels (ASWJ, the group known as al-Shabaab), “driving survivors into rural areas of Macomia County, where they now operate in small groups without bases, carrying out random attacks on civilians,” the ACSS infographic adds.

Violence against civilians fell by 80% last year, a figure the institute considers “particularly remarkable” given that violence by Islamic militants in northern Mozambique has historically been characterized by high levels of violence against civilians.

Last year, 23% of deaths in northern Mozambique were related to violence against civilians, with 53 attacks on civilians and 61 deaths, a record that compares with 286 attacks and 438 deaths in 2022.

“The question for this year will therefore be whether this progress can be sustained, given the persistence of the militants in the region,” ACSS concludes, deeming it “important to address the grievances that are the root causes of instability in Cabo Delgado.”

Contrary to data in Mozambique, the number of deaths due to violence by Islamic extremist groups on the continent continues to rise – by an additional 20% in 2023, for a total of 23,322 (up from 19,412 in 2022). over 80% of deaths occurred in the Sahel and Somalia. The number of deaths in 2023 is double that of 2021.

Deaths linked to violence by Islamic militants have increased 20% this year, from 19,412 in 2022 to a new record of 23,322 last year, representing a doubling of the number of deaths in 2021.

The Sahel (11,643 deaths, up 43% from 2022) and Somalia (7,643, up 23%) were the most violent sites for Islamic extremist deaths across the continent, accounting for 83% of deaths recorded in 2023.

Deaths in the Sahel account for 50% of deaths reported in Africa due to Islamic militants in 2023. By comparison, the number of deaths reported in 2020 in the Sahel attributable to Islamic militants was 30% of deaths recorded in Africa at the time, ACSS said the figures could be even higher.

The North American Institute stresses that the region’s “dramatic reduction in media space” is preventing the spread of growing instability in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger following coups d’état in these countries between 2020 and 2023, justified by the respective military juntas for the failure of their elected governments to combat violent Islamic extremism.

Much of the increase in deaths reported in the region is attributed to the Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) coalition, which includes the Masina Liberation Front and the Ansarul Islam group. This coalition is associated with a 67% increase in the number of reported deaths to 9,195 versus 5,499 in 2022.

The JNIM coalition is linked to 81% of Islamic extremist violence in the Sahel.

In contrast, the number of Daesh-related deaths in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) decreased by 7% in 2023, with a total of 2,448 deaths recorded.

In Somalia, the second most vulnerable area for Islamic extremist violence across the continent, all violent events were attributed to al-Shabaab, with the majority (65%) involving fighting between Somali government forces and Islamic movement forces.

The conflict, coupled with drought and flooding, has left 4.3 million people food insecure.