Brussels forecasts Portugal’s economy to grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025.

The European Commission forecasts Portugal’s GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, one-tenth less than this year but above the eurozone and European Union average.

However, in its winter economic forecasts, Brussels places Portugal among the single currency countries with the second-largest growth slowdown between 2023 and 2024 (1.1 percentage points), behind only Malta (1.5 percentage points).

The community leader forecasts Portugal’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth will increase from 2.3% in 2023 to 1.2% in 2024 and 1.8% in 2025, although in autumn forecasts he forecast growth in 2024 by level of 1.3%.

Growth is above average for the eurozone, which is expected to grow at 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, and the European Union, which is expected to grow at 0.9% in 2023 and 1.7% in 2025 year.

Brussels notes that growth in Portugal is expected to “remain moderate at the start of 2024” due to “weak demand from major trading partners” and will gradually pick up thereafter.

In this sense, he forecasts network growth of 0.3% in the first and second quarters of this year and 0.4% in the third and fourth quarters.

Over two years overall, “private consumption should benefit from continued employment and wage growth”, which will largely offset higher household spending on home loan repayments, while the ongoing implementation of the Recovery and Resilience Plan (PRR) continues to support investments. .

In the external sector, imports are expected to exceed exports.

In the government budget for 2024 (OE2024), the Ministry of Finance forecasts GDP growth this year at 1.5%, as does the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Among the main national and international economic institutions, the Council of Public Finance (CFP) forecasts GDP growth of 1.6% by 2024, while the Banco de Portugal (BdP) and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) forecast GDP growth of 1.2%. %.

AAT // MSF

Lusa/The End