Ukraine is warning of a major Russian attack on the first anniversary of the war, which is “too useless” even for Moscow, experts say.

Ukraine has warned that Russia is planning a full-scale offensive to mark the anniversary of the war, but military analysts have questioned the idea, which they say seems too “effective” even for Moscow.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said that Russia is amassing 500,000 troops – a significant increase from the 300,000 conscripts mobilized in recent months – with a view to possibly launching an offensive as early as February 24, exactly one year after Moscow’s invasion of the country.

“Officially, they announced 300,000 people, but when we see troops on the border, our estimates are much higher,” he told French TV channel BFM.

“We think so in the light of the fact that [Russia] lives in symbolism, they’ll try something around February 24th.”

However, defense experts have said it is unlikely that the number of Russian troops will reach half a million people. Professor Michael Clarke, former director general of the Royal United Arms Institute (Rus), put the figure at around 250,000.

He believes Reznikov is misrepresenting a series of statements made by the Russian defense ministry in recent weeks that show it plans to increase the army to 500,000 by 2026, roughly double the current strength of about 280,000.

“You can’t train and equip people in such numbers,” Professor Clarke said. I. “They mobilized up to 300,000 people, but the numbers seem to vary depending on how many of them are sent to the front lines.”

William Alberk, director of strategy, technology and arms control at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, agrees that given the logistics and huge replacement costs, Russia is unlikely to be able to safely mobilize 500,000 troops.

By his estimate, he said it would be between 300,000 and 350,000 people, even if they include OMON (special police), Wagner mercenaries, separatist forces in Luhansk and Dontesk in eastern Ukraine, and Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard).

But he agreed to some extent with Reznikov’s theory that Russia was planning a commemorative attack, saying that perhaps Moscow would strike “sooner or later to maintain the element of surprise.” He added: “Indeed, the fact that Ukraine reported this could complicate Russia’s calculations.

“Again, they like to spend their anniversaries here.”

On Thursday, Russia marked the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory at Stalingrad (modern Volgograd) with a grand parade of aircraft, tanks and armored vehicles.

The Battle of Stalingrad was the bloodiest battle of World War II when the Soviet Red Army repulsed the German invasion in 1942-43 at the cost of over a million men.

In his fiery speech in Volgograd, Vladimir Putin accused Germany of helping to arm Ukraine and said he was ready to use Russia’s entire arsenal.

“Unfortunately, we see that the ideology of Nazism in its modern form and manifestation again poses a direct threat to the security of our country,” Putin said.

“Again and again we have to repel the aggression of the collective West. Unbelievable, but true: we are again threatened by German Leopard tanks with crosses.

While most military observers agree that Russia is planning a new offensive in the spring, Prof Clarke said it’s “quite plausible” that Moscow could push it forward to counter Western tanks and weapons heading into Ukraine.

“The race starts for the one who finishes on time,” he added, but stressed that it was “too smooth” to schedule an attack on a specific date, such as an anniversary.

“Even for Moscow, this seems like too much of a ruse,” he added. “Russia believes that time is on its side. Since they made such a mess last year, it needs to be done right this time.”