“Bakhmut is a black hole, battalions are disappearing there,” Wagner’s Russian mercenary police Telegram channel wrote on Friday, accompanied by footage allegedly showing a raid on the city, which is “the most bitterly contested area of the front line.” .” become. .
The advance of Russian troops towards Bakhmut in the Donbass in eastern Ukraine is hotly contested. But the Wagner group’s black skull and crossbones flag has flown over a number of cities in the region since the new year, further stoking Ukraine’s call for more firepower from its Western allies.
Russian mercenaries were photographed in the village of Nikolaevka on Thursday. A few days earlier they had celebrated the capture of Blagodatny and Sacco and Vanzetti, a settlement named after two Italian anarchists. Wagner had previously taken the city of Soledar.
The gloom and strife among Russian experts that followed Ukraine’s autumn achievements have given way to more optimistic assessments.
“Russian troops continue to push through the defense lines,” according to the Russian military blog Ryber. “Further advance will allow them to control the Chasov Yar-Bakhmut highway and threaten the survival of the Bakhmut group.”
Ukrainian reports on the situation at the front paint a similar picture. Presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak, usually optimistic, said Ukrainian forces “paid a very high price” for holding Bakhmut, a site of intense fighting that lasted several months, and the US urged Kyiv to focus elsewhere.
The US think-tank, the Institute for the Study of War, acknowledged that Russian forces were “advancing” on Bakhmut along several lines of advance and reported that the Wagner fighters had been reinforced by the regular army.
The change in pace is not yet a concern — and it wouldn’t be if Ukraine lost Bakhmut,” said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst at defense consulting firm Rochen.
“Yes, the Russians are making progress, but they are slow and gradual and costly in terms of labor and equipment,” he says. I. “Ukraine’s withdrawal from Bakhmut is likely, but this will not have an operational impact on their ability to fight in this part of the Donbass.”
“From the Ukrainian point of view, the key is to keep the workforce and kill as many Russians as possible.”
But even a slow advance brings Russian troops closer to the cities of Seversk and the strategic center of Kramatorsk, Mr Muzyka admits, which is more important. He attributes their improved performance to the additional “mass” gained from mobilization.
Many more mobilized soldiers are expected to join the fighting on Russia’s side in the coming months, with some 350,000 fighters being trained.
In response, Ukraine is stepping up its campaign for better weapons systems from Western creditors. After months of negotiations, Kyiv has received tanks and is promoting long-range fighter jets and missiles, the latter said to be included in the next US military aid package.
Such systems are needed for Ukraine to regain initiative and win a decisive victory, says Mykola Beleskov of Ukraine’s pro-government think tank, the National Institute for Strategic Studies.
“If the West wants to avoid a stalemate in which Russia can consolidate its control over the occupied parts of Ukraine, it is necessary to increase the supply of heavy weapons,” he says. I.
The fall’s successes were “more to do with Russia’s mistakes and vulnerabilities than Ukraine’s strategic initiative,” Mr. Beleskov added. He believes that Ukraine will need more and more weapons for the tougher battles ahead.
The Battle of Bakhmut acquired a symbolic meaning after several months of fighting and heavy losses on both sides. Ukrainians call the city a “fortress” and President Volodymyr Zelensky brought the Bahmut flag to Washington for his speech to Congress last month.
President Zelenskiy vowed to hold the city at a press conference on Friday and urged allies to get weapons to defend the city.
“No one will betray Bakhmut. We will fight while we can. We consider Bakhmut our backbone,” he said. “Ukraine could hold Bakhmut and liberate the occupied Donbas if it had long-range weapons.”
Ukrainian leaders struggle to strike a balance in their reporting between showcasing Ukraine’s success on the battlefield, but more military assistance is needed. Officials would use the phrase “pretend we’re winning but not winning much”.
Ukrainian politicians have been accused of exaggerating the Russian threat, including at pre-Christmas briefings warning of another attack on Kyiv and recent statements by Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov that Moscow is amassing 500,000 troops.
Recent successes have not touched everyone on the Russian side. Igor Girkin, the former defense minister of the pro-Russian separatist group Donetsk People’s Republic, issued a recent warning.
“Last summer I saw more significant successes of the Russian troops in the capture of Popasnaya, Lisichansk, Severodonetsk,” he wrote. “What happened next?”
Source: I News
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