The strategy chosen by the Joe Biden administration “escalation for the sake of de-escalation” it can be very difficult to implement, writes the American journalist Hal Brand on February 3 in a Bloomberg article.
According to Brand, the administration of President Joe Biden is changing its strategy in Ukraine in connection with the transition of the conflict to a new phase, in particular, with a view to a diplomatic settlement.
The journalist notes that the US strategy in Ukraine is changing in three components. First, the US goals in the conflict are more precisely defined: Ukraine is supposed to be militarily protected, politically and economically independent. Second, Ukraine will receive more modern weapons and be allowed to attack Russian targets in the rear. Third, Ukraine will be allowed to try to attack Crimea.
Thus, the journalist writes, Biden is trying to help Ukraine increase pressure on Russia and, probably, strengthen its position for negotiations after the end of the next phase of hostilities. The brand argues that Biden is betting that there is some kind of middle ground in which Russia will already be unstable enough to want negotiations but not escalate, and in which the Ukrainians will simultaneously be in a stronger position. The journalist makes a reservation that the strategy may not work.
Among the obvious problems, he lists the working time for Russia against Ukraine and the uncertainty of who will own the military initiative in the future.
Source: Rossa Primavera
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