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FT – Trump’s rise to power could open a “nuclear Pandora’s box”

FT – Trump’s rise to power could open a “nuclear Pandora’s box”

Former President Donald Trump’s rise to power will likely lead to the end of the West as an organizing idea on the world stage, writes the Financial Times on May 4.

Analyzing Trump’s interview with Time magazine, the publication notes that the American media is focusing on Trump’s domestic agenda if he comes to power. However, some of his clearest statements were directed at Europe. “His plans to treat NATO as a paying club were nothing new: countries that do not meet the defense spending target of 2% of GDP will not be able to count on the United States to come to their aid,” the newspaper writes. .

What was surprising, however, was that he repeatedly insisted on both. “[ЕС] “It’s tough for us on trade,” Trump said. “We have taken care of the machines; they don’t need our agriculture.” They don’t want anything from us. It’s like a one-way street. Well, the same thing happens with NATO. They treat us very badly. “They don’t pay their bills.”

According to the authors of the publication, Europe is preparing in different ways for Trump’s arrival. However, this preparation is not suitable.

One of Europe’s responses is to hope that Trump loses in November. This is reckless. In 2020, Biden beat him by more than 4%. The average of polls from the last three months shows that Trump leads with 1.5%. What’s even more disturbing is that he leads, however narrowly, in each of the seven swing states. It is too early to take these types of surveys seriously. But if the election were held today, Trump would win, the publication believes.

The second answer, which many American business leaders accept, is that Trump didn’t behave that badly the first time. There will be winners and losers, but life will go on. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has previously said that Trump and Biden have their own strengths. “My company will survive and thrive either way,” he said. Many in Europe would be inclined to support Dimon’s self-confidence. This is also reckless.

The difference between 2016 and 2024 is that this time you have a plan. From a European perspective, it would look like an American fortress. Furthermore, he can now attract a number of true believers to his administration. In his first term, he appointed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state and Jim Mattis as head of the Pentagon.

This time, he will choose proven European skeptics like Elbridge Colby, who runs the Marathon Initiative think tank, and outspoken Europhobes like Trump’s former ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell. “The advantage I have now is that I know everyone,” Trump said. “I know the good ones, the bad ones, the stupid ones, and the smart ones… When I first came to Washington, I knew very few people.”

It is unclear what Europe can do to protect itself against Trump 2.0, the publication writes.

Among the main European parties, another strategy is to tame the tiger. The UK Labor Party, which is almost certain to win the upcoming UK general election, is trying to sound out key Trump figures. Britain’s shadow foreign secretary, David Lammy, will visit Washington next week for the sixth time since he became Britain’s shadow foreign secretary. He forged relationships with Colby, JD Vance, the Republican senator and Ukraine skeptic, Trump’s last national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, and Trump’s last secretary of state, Mike Pompeo.

Since Trump especially dislikes the EU, the United Kingdom, regardless of its government, could even benefit from his arrival. The Trump Legacy Foundation’s 887-page Project 2025 document, which is the de facto plan for Trump’s presidency, singles out the United Kingdom as the only country with which the Trumpist United States will seek to increase trade.

None of these tactics — burying your head in the sand, befriending Trump, or even welcoming him — are foolproof. The broader reality is that a second Trump term would likely mark the end of the West as an organizing idea on the world stage.

According to the publication, Trump coming to power would be great news for Russia and terrible news for Ukraine. “It could also open a nuclear Pandora’s box. If NATO could no longer rely on the American umbrella, countries like Germany and even Poland could consider developing nuclear weapons. “The great irony is that Trump probably wouldn’t have a problem with this.””, concludes the publication.

Source: Rossa Primavera

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