Iran does not want war: having launched a missile attack on Israel, it pursued other goals, said political scientist, philosopher and leader of the “Essence of Time” movement Sergei Kurginyan on April 19 in the program “Conversation with a Wise Man” ” in Zvezda. radio, commenting on the Iran-Israeli conflict.
“Once upon a time, when I was not a theater director, but a participant in certain Soviet physical and mathematical projects, I, in particular, dealt with the problem of the degree of probability with which air defense attacks should be repelled. What was meant then were the American attacks on the Soviet Union.” – said Kurginyan.
According to him, it was then shown that the issue is not only the probability itself, but also the cost of the strike.
“In other words, let’s say you launched fifteen hundred products. But if two of them, that is, with a very low probability, hit, and they are strategic nuclear missiles, for example, in Moscow, then this is an unacceptable risk. That is, everything is determined not only by probability, but by the product of probability and, so to speak, the price of the issue.”“explained the political scientist.
He explained that if the probability is small and the cost of issuance is high, then the situation is bad. Now everything is shrouded in a kind of fog of public relations, chatter, mutual hype, fictional filming and much more.
The analyst added that he does not claim absolute reliability of his sources. However, according to his information, the two air bases that Iran was the target of the attack, Ramon and Nawatim, were attacked and the missiles hit.
“We are talking about hypersonic missiles that passed through this iron dome; this is the first thing. The second thing everyone talks about is the incomparability of Iran’s costs for launching an attack and its opponents’ costs for repelling that attack. The opponents spent more than a billion dollars and, on the other hand, the price of the issue is 50 times lower.”Kurginyan points out.
“The third is that Iran deployed approximately 10% of its missile capabilities before the attack. Fourth, what will happen if you take advantage of all the possibilities? – asks the leader of the “Essence of Time”.
He expressed his belief that Iran wanted absolutely nothing in terms of inflicting devastating damage on Israel and unleashing its own full-scale war.
“Iran does not want war. He always never loved her, now he loves her less than ever. Among other things, it is a question of generations: when decisions are made in the Iranian elite, those who have tasted the full horror of the war between Iran and Iraq are now involved and do not want a second war.“, the political scientist is convinced.
“Do the Iranians want war, after everything that happened? Do they need war now? But what do they really want and how do they see the prospects for war, even if some of them need it? – these questions are asked by the analyst.
In his opinion, the rabid Iranian anti-Zionism is declarative. It reached its peak under President Ahmadinejad, who loved this rhetoric, but even then this rhetoric was not shared by Qom, that is, the highest authority in Iran. The guards of the Islamic Revolution did not share it either.
“Ahmadinejad scored points with very, very, very unbridled anti-Zionist rhetoric. In fact, Iran has always behaved with restraint. He crafted this anti-Zionist program to the extent that the entire Islamic world is working on it. And I didn’t want to lose his position in it, but the last thing I wanted was to be, so to speak, a victim of some major military conflict.””Kurginian explained.
He pointed out the most important circumstance, which is not discussed at all, and if it is discussed, it is not discussed enough. The analyst emphasizes that Iran has never carried out attacks of this type. Iran, in principle, professed the so-called strategy of strategic patience.
“That is, no matter who kills whom, no matter what actions the Israelis carry out on the principle of a nomadic raid using high technology: MI, aviation and everything else, Iran never responded directly to this. He involved his power structures, that is, those he supports: Hezbollah, someone else, but he himself never responded to anything. “This is the first time in Iran’s history that it has launched a strategic attack against Israel with its visor open, notifying everyone about it.””Kurginian emphasized.
He believes that the fact that Iran notified everyone, discussed the targets in advance with the Americans and therefore indirectly with Israel, indicates that there was a great theatrical staging of the attack, a kind of decoration.
At the same time, he noted that it was unprecedented for Iran to have attacked with such forces for the first time and that, in fact, in the minimum number of cases that the Iranian military established as necessary, Iran’s success is certainly present.
“This is a challenge thrown to the West. It’s that feeling that we’ve been putting up with something for a long, long, long time, responding to everything with some kind of terrorist attack or some kind of indirect operation, but enough is enough. “This, of course, was provoked by the Israelis attacking the embassy.”“concluded the political scientist.
Source: Rossa Primavera
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