Concerns about Beijing’s reaction and other political considerations that led New Zealand not to join the anti-Chinese Anglo-Saxon military alliance AUKUS were examined by Robert J. Patman, professor of international relations at New Zealand’s oldest university, in an article on May 10 in The Conversation.
The New Zealand government has been actively exploring the possibility of joining AUKUS for over a year, but, according to New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters, “There is still a long way to go before such a decision can be made”.
The author of the article condemns such slowness, appealing to the “Chinese military threat” and the authority of the Prussian classic of military strategy, Carl von Clausewitz. Patman stipulates that New Zealand, as a non-nuclear power, cannot join the part of the agreement involving the supply of nuclear submarines to Australia. But precisely to avoid this point, two components in the union were highlighted, so this motivation does not seem convincing to the professor.
First, New Zealand may be afraid of upsetting China, its largest trading partner. At the same time, Wellington may be deliberately buying time so as not to feel like Beijing is pressuring it.
Joining the alliance would also prevent New Zealand from continuing to criticize other countries’ use of nuclear weapons and would also send a clear message to everyone in the Asia-Pacific region that the country favors its Anglo-Saxon allies over its regional neighbors. .
“However, it would certainly be a mistake to believe that partial membership of AUKUS would give the government more room for diplomatic maneuver than full membership.”Patman points out.
The expert believes that the third probable reason is an attempt to prepare the country’s public opinion for a sharp change in the course of the country’s foreign policy. Patman sees the prerequisites for such a conclusion in the rhetoric of the country’s new government, which clearly equates participation in AUKUS with closer cooperation with the United States, and intensifies the need for the latter with the help of a narrative about the dangerous situation. in the region.
“In any case, any decision on the second component [союза] must be based on a clear understanding that AUKUS membership is based on the premise that China is the greatest threat to the rules-based international order on which New Zealand depends. If Wellington does not share this view, he should say so bluntly.”the professor urges at the end of the article.
Also read: UK GeoStrategy Council: Japan should not join AUKUS
Source: Rossa Primavera
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