South African government decision may include removal of President Ramaphosa

The decision to govern South Africa after the ANC lost its electoral majority could involve the departure of the leader of the party with its worst electoral performance in 30 years in power, President Cyril Ramaphosa.

“We were all surprised by the scale of the decline in electoral support for the African National Congress (ANC) – by 17 percentage points. In any normal Western democracy, Ramaphosa would be history,” Jackie Cilliers, founder and president, told Luse. Board of Directors of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria.

“I would not rule out the possibility that Ramaphosa will cease to be president” after the 14-day constitutional period during which South Africa’s new parliament takes office, following the announcement of the results of the general election, which took place on May 29, by President Ramaphosa on Sunday 2 date, the analyst added.

The South African think tank is betting on two main scenarios for a possible governance solution, the first of which is an agreement between the ANC and the second-largest party, the Democratic Alliance (DA, by its English acronym, Liberal), whose leaders are mostly white. , as well as the Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP), a historical ally of the ANC, with whose support he ruled until 2004.

The second scenario involves the creation of a coalition dominated by the ANC and Knesset members (uMkhonto we Sizwe – the name of the military wing of the ANC during the fight against apartheid), created by the party founded late last year by Jacob Zuma, a former South African. The president, a “passionate enemy” of Ramaphosa, surprisingly won almost 15% of the vote and a majority in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) provincial assembly.

This National Unity decision, but not the first, would include the EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters), the current third parliamentary party, dissident from the ANC and far left.

This week the ANC began a series of preliminary contacts with the various parties holding seats in the next National Assembly – DA, EFF, IFP, Patriotic Alliance (PA), National Freedom Party (NFP).

Zuma said he would not negotiate with the ANC as long as Ramaphosa remained its leader, but the MK eventually said it was “willing to negotiate.”

Conversations will concern both a possible national solution and the most important provinces, equally without the distribution of votes that would lead to the expectation of government decisions based on clearly dominant parties.

The election results allow the ANC to govern the rural provinces of the Northern Cape (with the support of a fringe party), North West, Free State, Eastern Cape, Limpopo and Mpumalanga. The main problems arise in KZN and Gauteng, which together with the Western Cape constitute the economic and demographic center of South Africa, ISS highlights.

“The national agreement between the ANC and NC guarantees political stability but low economic growth. In this scenario, legal impunity for those accused of state capture would be achieved through indirect means such as restrictions on funding, failure to conduct investigations, etc. Confidence in the economy and foreign direct investment would likely decline, and the consequences for the rule of law would be dire “, summarizes the South African institute.

A national agreement between the ANC and DA “will allow Gauteng to be comfortably governed, provide investor confidence and ultimately more sustainable growth, but carries the risk of instability, particularly in KZN”, adds ISS.

“I think the most likely scenario is the creation of some kind of government of national unity, the process of which may result in Ramaphosa not becoming president. He may have to become a victim of such an agreement,” Cilliers told Lusa.

Whatever the decision, Zuma also plays a central role in this process. The former president is barred by the Constitutional Court from sitting in the future national parliament because he was recently sentenced to an effective prison sentence, despite Ramaphosa later granting him amnesty.

Thus, his ambitions are limited to the KZN Parliament, but this does not mean that he does not have the power to condition the possible future decision of the governance of the country.

“He’s a Zulu, he’s a traditionalist. Influence in KZN is the most he can hope for. But his fight is with Ramaphosa. He will do everything possible to try to ensure that Ramaphosa does not survive, and that is likely to be a critical requirement on their part” for a possible future agreement, Jackie Cilliers said.