EU leaders seek to close today the distribution of the leadership of the European institutions

The heads of State and Government of the European Union (EU) meet this Monday in Brussels with the aim of agreeing on the new dome of the European institutions, an agreement that was expected at the end of the month but that could already happen at this meeting if the pools are met that make it certain that the conservative Ursula Von der Leyen will continue to lead the European Comission in exchange for the European Council the former Portuguese Prime Minister assumes it Antonio Costasocialist, and that the still Prime Minister of Estonia, the liberal Kaja Kallastake over from Josep Borrell as head of the european diplomacy.

This is an informal leaders’ dinner so a final decision cannot be formally adopted, but a political agreement can be reached that confirms the distribution of senior positions if a design is finalized that respects the complex ideological, geographical and gender balances. , among others, that are required.

To complete this architecture, the leaders will also include in the agreement the Presidency of the European Parliamentwhich is expected to maintain the ‘popular’ Roberta Metsola in the first half of the legislature, although the power to appoint him rests with the plenary session of the European Parliament, which will put the candidacy to a vote on July 16 in Strasbourg (France).

The rest of the names, those of the Presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council as well as the High Representative of the EU, their designation is the prerogative of the Twenty-Seven and requires a qualified majority in the Council for its adoption, which reduces the veto capacity of ultra-conservative governments like that of Viktor Orbán, which has already shown rejection of Von der Leyen’s re-election. The leadership of the community Executive, in addition, must be submitted to the vote of the European Parliament, probably also in the July plenary session if there is a solid agreement by then.

Von der Leyen and Costa, with more options

Von der Leyen has the support of her political family, the European People’s Party (EPP), but the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the Liberals (Renew) have also given signs that they will give her their support to overcome Parliament’s scrutiny. , although they have set a ‘red line’ for him not to make any agreements along the way with ultra-conservative or extreme right MEPs, that is, neither with Identity and Democracy (ID, led by the National Group of the French Marine Le Pen) nor with the Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), which include Vox and Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.

Fewer doubts seem to arise about the options of Costa, who resigned as Prime Minister of Portugal in November due to a corruption scandal that affected his chief of staff, but who now has the endorsement of the conservative Portuguese Government to replace Charles Michel as president of the European Council from December 1. Costa also has a very good relationship with Von der Leyen, Sánchez and Macron.

With this distribution reserved for the EPP by the European Commission and the Social Democrats by the European Council, Kallas’ candidacy as head of European diplomacy gains strength, since it would give the liberals the third seat in senior positions (‘Top Jobs’ in the community jargon) and has a proven profile after gaining presence as a belligerent voice against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Her appointment will cover other ‘boxes’ of the balance as a representative of a small and eastern country that exercises executive power and legislative initiative.

Although it could lead to an agreement in principle, the heads of state and government of the EU still have a meeting in their formal summit at the end of this month to finish outlining their decisions.