Kyiv aims for “maximum escalation” in front of Donbass

Ukraine this Thursday pointed to “maximum escalation” in the eastern region of Luhansk, less than two weeks before the first anniversary of the Russian military invasion, which could signal the beginning of Moscow’s offensive in the Donbas region.

“The number of shelling by the occupiers has increased significantly,” the head of the regional state administration Sergei Gaidai said on Telegram, noting that “the Russians are moving towards Kremennaya,” despite the lack of “significant success.”

The U.S. Institute of War Studies (ISW) found that “Russian troops have regained the initiative in Ukraine and launched a major offensive in Lugansk.”

“The pace of Russian operations along the Svyato-Kremennaya line in the western part of Lugansk has increased significantly over the past week,” ISW adds, adding that the Russian army has made “a slight advance along the border between Kharkiv and the Luhansk region.”

American analysts pointed out that the presence in this zone of “at least three large Russian divisions conducting offensive operations” indicates that “the Russian offensive has begun.”

Gaidai, who previously described the situation as “maximum escalation,” noted that the Russian army also continues to bomb settlements in the area, including Makiivka, which is “almost completely destroyed.”

In recent months, Russian forces have focused their efforts on the Ukrainian Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which were annexed by Russia in September 2022, in particular around the cities of Vuhledar and Bakhmut.

The conquest of these cities, in particular Bakhmut, would open the way for the Russians to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, the main Ukrainian strongholds in the Donbass.

Kyiv believes that the Russians will focus on complete control of Lugansk and Donetsk, but may also launch operations in Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in the south of the country, as well as those annexed by Moscow.

Andriy Yusov, spokesman for the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Service (DIU), warned on Ukrainian television this Thursday that “the main goal [russo] it is, in fact, the east and the Donbass.”

“Other areas may also be affected, but with these attacks [a Rússia] basically they will try to distract and slow down the Ukrainian forces,” he said.

According to Yusov, there are currently 300,000 “occupiers” in Ukraine, representing “an increase in the number, but not the quality, of the Russian army.”

“The best units and the best weapons [russas] were mostly damaged or destroyed on the territory of Ukraine over the past year. And it will definitely not be possible to prepare adequate forces of the same level,” he assured.

It is also possible that the Russian army may consider launching an offensive in northern Ukraine or a landing in the south, despite the fact that it considers this option “suicidal.”

This Thursday, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called at a summit of European Union leaders in Brussels for “quick and sure solutions” to halt Russia’s advance, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev visited a tank factory in the Siberian region of Omsk. .

Medvedev, also a member of the Russian Security Council, pointed out that while “the enemy is begging for planes, missiles and tanks abroad”, Russia should “increase the production of various types of weapons, including modern tanks.”

“We are talking about the production and modernization of thousands of tanks,” he said in a Telegram video broadcast.

According to the Dutch analytical group Oryx, Russia lost 1,688 tanks in the Ukrainian conflict, of which 1,000 were destroyed by Ukrainian forces, 544 captured, 79 sustained minor damage and 65 abandoned.

The military offensive launched by Russia on February 24, 2022 in Ukraine has so far caused the flight of more than 14 million people – 6.5 million internally displaced people and more than eight million to European countries – according to the latest UN figures. which classifies this refugee crisis as the worst in Europe since World War II (1939-1945).

At the moment, at least 17.7 million Ukrainians are in need of humanitarian assistance, and 9.3 million are in need of food aid and housing.

The Russian invasion, justified by Russian President Vladimir Putin on the need to “denazify” and demilitarize Ukraine for Russia’s security, was condemned by the international community at large, which responded by sending weapons to Ukraine and imposing political and economic sanctions on Russia.

The UN presented 7,155 civilian deaths and 11,662 wounded as confirmed since the start of the war, stressing that these figures are far from real.