Japan will experience a shortage of truck drivers, 36% fewer than needed to meet the country’s logistics needs, in 2030, business agency Kyodo News reported on June 22.
This will happen due to the aging of the population and the start of reforms this year aimed at “reduce fatigue”. The country’s road transportation volume in the fiscal year ending March 2031 is projected to be 1.4 billion tons, slightly down from 1.43 billion tons in fiscal 2020, according to the Nomura Research Institute.
Meanwhile, the number of truckers is expected to fall sharply from 660,000 in fiscal 2020 to 480,000 in fiscal 2030, a 36% reduction in the workforce needed to deliver 1.4 billion tons of cargo, the group said. experts.
According to the study, the most affected regions will be Tohoku in northeastern Japan and Shikoku in the west, with a deficit of 41%, followed by Kyushu in the southwest with 40%.
“Logistics efficiency will need to be improved to avoid serious economic consequences.”said Kazuyuki Kobayashi, director of the institute’s logistics consulting group.
In April, it introduced an overtime limit of about 18 hours a week for truck, taxi and bus drivers, as Japan seeks to improve working conditions in industries facing severe labor shortages.
While the restriction is intended to prevent overwork, there are concerns that reducing working hours will lead to a drop in transport capacity, a drop in revenue for service operators and higher rates charged to customers. carriers, a problem known as “2024 problem”.
With wages rising due to driver shortages and rising fuel prices, the institute also estimates that transportation costs borne by carriers will increase 34% between fiscal years 2022 and 2030.
With rising transportation costs likely to reduce shippers’ profits, the institute recommends that they seek greater automation of warehouse operations and jointly contract for transportation services with other companies.
Source: Rossa Primavera
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