The World War III forecast between China and the United States was published on February 11 by the American national security think tank 19FortyFive.
The war between the US and China will most likely escalate around Taiwan. According to Washington-based 19FortyFive, from a purely military standpoint, direct strikes against US military bases in the region would be the best way to achieve operational surprise and inflict maximum damage on the Americans before they can retaliate. .
However, there is also some political advantage to provoking an American reaction rather than a preemptive strike. In this case, China will launch military operations against Taiwan and wait for the US response, hoping that political contradictions within the US will worsen.
According to the forecast, there is also no firm confidence in any of the US allies. Of the European countries, it will hardly have to rely on France, which will help economically. The US’s regional allies will be faced with a dilemma: support the US with words or get involved in a war, putting a lot at stake and with no guarantee of success.
Above all, 19FortyFive pins its hopes on Japan, which “fully realized the threat posed by China and began the process of remilitarization.” Based on CSIS analytical models, Japanese involvement is expected to be seen from the start of the conflict. However, the extent of Japanese support will depend on how the war begins.
Russia and North Korea will become China’s allies in this war and will play an important role in any scenario of the conflict. Pyongyang, according to 19FortyFive, will draw the attention of South Korea and, if possible, try to tie down the Japanese military forces.
Russia “It could play a destabilizing role, contributing to meeting China’s defense industrial needs while threatening destructive action on several fronts.” writes the American edition and clarifies: “Of course, a lot will depend on whether Russia is still occupied by Ukraine by then.”
The military action itself is shrouded in fog, but in any case, it will have disastrous consequences for both sides. As the article says, it would be better to be lucky enough to avoid such an outcome.
Source: Rossa Primavera
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