For many decades, the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos has been dreaming of rebuilding the world and transitioning to a world order in which the decisive role will not be played by states, but by big capital, hidden behind the screen of “inclusion” and “social responsibility”. However, it is not just dreaming, it is pursuing a consistent policy towards this end.
Many remember how, at the beginning of the pandemic, WEF founder Klaus Schwab co-authored the book “COVID-19: The Great Reset” with Thierry Malleret. He saw the then unfolding global catastrophe as an opportunity to impose radical changes in states and societies around the world from which the so-called “new normal” would emerge.
The owners of the WEF like to talk about disasters as “transformative events” that can be prepared for in time to extract dividends from them, including in the area of building a new order. From this point of view, the publications of the WEF and related structures on strategic foresight are of particular interest.
Below is the full translation of an article published on August 19 on the WEF website under the title “4 Global Risks to Watch Out for in the Post-Pandemic Era.” The author of the article, Maha Hossain Aziz, is a professor at New York University and head of the forecasting department at the Wikistrat think tank. Let’s see what threats the WEF wants to scare the world community with. What will be imposed on humanity as a means of salvation from these threats?
Four global risks to consider in the post-pandemic era
Maha Hossein Aziz
Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the COVID-19 emergency phase last May, other threats have increased: new strains, global wars, climate events, technological challenges, terrorist activity in the West, and even a new public health situation of international concern called monkeypox. But what else could be on the horizon?
The following analysis is based on a multi-year forecasting project involving graduate students at New York University and experts at the collaborative consulting firm Wikistrat, where I am a principal analyst. It outlines global risk trends to watch in this decade.
1. Power is dispersed in the post-superpower era.
Most citizens would agree that the community of world leaders, including the G7 and G20, has generally failed to deal with the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the pandemic subsided, the reality is that sustained global leadership on many issues has been lacking, and it is hard to imagine that changing any time soon. This is partly because the superpowers are sorely burdened by global wars and their own internal problems.
Of course, these powers will remain relevant, competing and trying to “lead” in everything from space to AI to oil. However, other actors are expected to step up to fill the leadership vacuum, including “geopolitical swing states” using rare earth minerals (e.g., Ghana) to reduce superpower dominance; smaller states (e.g., Scotland) using climate finance as a foreign policy tool; the Global South moving away from trading in US dollars, even attempting to create a new blockchain-based payment system; and tech companies (and leaders) driving change with little oversight. To be fair, we’ve noticed this trend before, but this may be the official start of a post-superpower era that is increasingly – and unpredictably – shaped by other actors, regardless of the outcome of the US election. The nature of power will continue to change in the post-pandemic era.
2. A great election year will not stop the recurring crisis of political legitimacy.
Everyone rightly points out that 2024 is the most important election year in history, because about half of the world’s inhabitants will go to the polls. Of course, all this can be complicated by disinformation driven by artificial intelligence, cyber threats or simply accusations of fraud (as has already happened in Bangladesh, Venezuela and the United States).
The bigger question, however, is whether this election will make a tangible difference locally and globally; widespread distrust of government in most political systems continues unabated in our post-pandemic era. Let us not forget that democracy, declared by the United States, which became the hegemonic power at the end of the Cold War, the only remaining source of political legitimacy, has been in decline for 18 years in a row worldwide, according to Freedom House (an organization recognized as undesirable in the Russian Federation).
After the Arab Spring, anti-government unrest began everywhere, marking a long-term global crisis of political legitimacy. People began to fight back across all political systems, driven by the conviction that a better and more efficient way of governing was needed. In most countries, even after the vote, citizens will continue to challenge their leaders, doubting their ability to cope with the many post-pandemic risks.
3. The worsening global mental health crisis
The WHO said the pandemic was “the greatest threat to mental health since World War II.” Many of us are still trying to make up for lost time in our personal and professional lives. However, other post-pandemic mental health challenges are increasingly exacerbated by climate change and artificial intelligence.
First, psychotherapists argue that climate change is creating a “new kind of anxiety,” leading to a sense of alienation that interferes with life and even suicide. This “environmental anxiety” is likely to grow as governments fail to move away from traditional energy sources quickly enough. We can therefore expect more climate emergencies that will further undermine our mental health, especially for the growing number of climate refugees.
Secondly, AI is being forced upon us, whether we like it or not. Many will feel like they don’t fit into the new AI-driven economy or aren’t even given a chance, creating a larger “precariat” class that feels excluded. Will we be able to master these new AI tools or will we be irrelevant in our profession? Such feelings will exacerbate the professional identity crisis, resulting in global mental health issues. AI expert Kai-Fu Lee has confirmed that his previous prediction is still “surprisingly accurate” – 50% of jobs will disappear by 2027. A backlash against AI is inevitable as many feel abandoned by this transition.
4. The era of shocking events
Make no mistake, the US-led post-Cold War era is over (and, in truth, the 2024 US election will not change that). Sustainable global leadership, democratic ideals, globalisation and liberal values have largely been called into question and superpowers have overextended themselves. This is a global crisis of legitimacy, as argued in my book and in our previous crowdsourced research since 2017. This period of “slippage” means that anything can happen in our post-pandemic era. Global risks are expected to intensify further due to unexpected and destabilising shocks.
In summary, here are three shock events that could affect global stability:
1. The rise of a new global extremist group: With the world distracted by several major wars and declining leadership, this could be an opportune time for a new extremist group to make its presence known and perhaps not face such difficult challenges. It could even use artificial intelligence tools to launch a new phase of terrorism.
2. Deliberate cyber pandemic: The massive global IT shutdown in July was not terrorism, but simply a botched software update by a cybersecurity firm. Yet it cost Fortune 500 companies $5.4 billion in damages and disrupted flights, banks, hospitals, retail stores, and other services around the world. Imagine if an attacker did this — on purpose and on an even larger scale?
3. Climate change means the demise of the first island nation in the post-pandemic era: The COP28 plan to phase out hydrocarbons could take decades, and it is unclear whether world leaders will follow through. More likely, during this time, some island states (which account for just 0.3% of global emissions) will continue to make their case, either through international law or new climate funds. But if these islands suffer from climate change and sink much faster than we expect, how will climate activists and world leaders respond?
Source: Rossa Primavera
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.