Russian analysts believe that the initiative on an international scale still belongs to the United States and its goal is to provoke Russia and China and prevent the strategic autonomy of the European Union.
In his opinion, the real clash of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is between the US and Russia, with Ukraine at the center, when there are no noticeable gaps in the “Western anti-Russian coalition” because Washington overshadows any voice in favor of peace.
“The initiative belongs to the United States, which is trying to prevent a polycentric world and consolidate its hegemony throughout the 21st century,” Andrey Sushentsov, director of the Valdai discussion club in the capital, a professor at the State Institute of the Moscow Department of International Relations (MGIMO) and an expert on US foreign policy and international conflicts.
From the scientist’s point of view, the US is trying to provoke Russia and China, forcing them to make “decisive decisions” that will alienate them from their allies.
“Due to the crisis in relations between Russia and China with their respective allies, the US intends to provide significant material resources to increase its influence,” he notes.
As an ulterior motive, Sushentsov continues, Washington also intends to limit the economic growth of its allies and subject them to allied discipline.
“He intends to eliminate impulses of strategic autonomy within the European Union and among his partners and allies in Asia. In this way, he hopes to strengthen his position as a determined and indispensable participant in the multilateral military partnership that he is integrating with his allies.”
When discussing separately with each country, Washington intends to “involve its partners in East Asia in conflicts in Europe and vice versa,” citing negotiations on the supply of South Korean tanks to Poland as an example.
“Although there is no direct connection between the crisis in Ukraine and the situation around Taiwan, the United States is doing everything possible to artificially inflame it,” emphasizes Sushentsov, who in the current situation believes that the “challenge” is that the United States States “they are not may be simultaneously involved in a conflict with Russia in Ukraine and China in Taiwan.”
Returning to Europe, he calls the three Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia “the most radical group” of the anti-Russian coalition, in which the allies play different roles.
“They are tools of American policy,” they defend growing US interference in European affairs, and intend to put pressure on the countries they criticize because they believe they are making “concessions” to Russia, he argues.
A point highlighted by Timofey Bordachev, director of programs at the Valdai Club, when he believes in his analysis, also recently published, that a “sudden and dramatic escalation” between Russia and the United States cannot be completely ruled out.
“There are several factors that could contribute to this, starting with the vague position of several formal US allies: Poland and the Baltic states,” emphasizes Bordachev, a doctor of political sciences from St. Petersburg University, an expert in international relations. theory, but in Europe-Russia relations, the foreign policy of the European Union (EU) and Eurasia.
“It cannot be ruled out that the more active involvement of these states in a conflict with Russia could lead to threats to their territory, and in a situation in which the United States will have to make a very serious choice,” he explains.
In this wider group of “anti-Russian” allies, Sushentsov sidelines the UK, defining it as a “second vassal of US global politics”, sometimes with more radical positions than Washington, and which provides an opportunity for North Americans to become a more moderate international player.
By contrast, France, Italy and Germany are identified as more cautious, but warn that the economic consequences of these crises will also be addressed at their expense.
The third group includes countries that he considers opportunistic, seeking to defend their interests, including through disputes with the United States, namely Turkey and Hungary.
The US will still have a group of “powerful allies” among what are considered “radical countries in Eastern Europe” who pose as a safe border and which must be strengthened by all means to fight Russia, he also points out.
“The US supports this policy not only because of the need to contain Russia, but also because of the potential and future confrontation with China. For a number of reasons, the United States is not interested in efforts to peacefully resolve the conflict on your behalf” to achieve a variety of goals, regardless of what happens in Ukraine.
Current signs rule out a possible direct intervention in the conflict, although there is currently a “high degree of uncertainty,” adds Timofey Bordachev.
“The current stage of international politics, in which the main players are involved, contains a colossal element of uncertainty, and this is not surprising: neither Russia nor the West has ever faced such a situation in the past.”
According to this analyst, the continuation of the military confrontation “will depend on the ability of the parties to convincingly demonstrate their military capabilities and resist the inevitable economic changes associated with the conflict.”
Bordachev argues that so far Russia and the West have shown a “high degree of internal stability” and “ability” to keep fighting.
“This makes it difficult to predict when the parties will feel the need to return to the negotiating table,” he admits.
“However, the Russian proposals submitted a year ago [referência às negociações diretas entre Moscovo e Kiev na fase inicial do conflito, entretanto interrompidas] may still be subject to discussion. And they can happen after the creation of conditions, the task of the military-technical phase of relations, ”he concludes in his reflections.
Author: Portuguese
Source: CM Jornal

I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.