China has sought to show the world that there is an alternative to a US-led world order by launching a “diplomatic storytelling game” with a more proactive approach to the war in Ukraine.
Experts say Beijing’s latest “charm offensive” is favoring countries in the Global South that have largely stayed out of the European war, especially autocratic states.
Belarus and Hungary are close allies of the Kremlin, and the countries of Central Asia are China’s main assets in its quest to stop the spread of democratization, said Temur Umarov, a staff member at the Carnegie Endowment think tank in Washington. for international peace for international affairs. .
“It’s about China’s attempt to create some idea that the international order can be different, this model of economic prosperity without democracy,” he said.
China has positioned itself as a neutral player in the Ukraine conflict but solidified its role last week by issuing a 12-point proposal calling for a ceasefire and an end to Western sanctions against Russia.
But China’s position on the war in Ukraine has not changed, and this is reflected in the content of the proposal, which is more general than specific. It is “part of a broader charm campaign aimed at boosting Beijing’s position in international affairs,” said Alicia Bachulska, a politician at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
China used the offer to deflect accusations that it was about to arm Russia, and the subsequent retreat of the Western powers could be seen by some as an attempt to maintain their hegemony in the world.
“It’s really just a diplomatic storytelling game,” Mr. Umarov said.
The West has largely rejected China’s peace efforts, with US State Department spokesman Ned Price on Monday noting that China “clearly” sided with Russia in providing diplomatic, political and economic assistance.
Analysts argue that Beijing is not interested in a war in Ukraine, but Moscow’s tacit support is important – a Russian defeat would be a real challenge to Xi Jinping’s narrative of the decline of the West.
“Today, not a single problem in the world can be solved without China,” Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a staunch ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said ahead of his visit to Beijing on Tuesday.
His comments came a day after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has good relations with Putin, said his country supports China’s peace plan.
As for the Ukraine conflict, China is also considering how the West, especially the US, might respond to its own aggression.
Tensions between the US and China have escalated in recent weeks after the US military said it shot down a Chinese spy balloon. China continues to insist that the balloon was a civilian research vessel that accidentally veered off course, calling the US response excessive.
The spat is likely to escalate into a meeting of G20 foreign ministers starting on Wednesday, where officials have previously clashed over condemning Russia for the war.
From Beijing’s perspective, conflict with Washington is “inevitable,” Umarov said, so China will want to delay it in order to work toward self-sufficiency outside the US economy.
The plan is still working. China has been a beneficiary of the war in Ukraine – it has received huge energy cuts from Moscow, and the billions of dollars that Washington is investing in military assistance to Ukraine are not intended to strengthen its military forces in the Pacific.
According to Umarov, anything that can distract the US from confrontation with China will benefit Beijing.
It is possible that the US response to China’s implied support for Russia could influence China’s aggressive plans against its neighbors, including Taiwan.
“It is highly likely that the Chinese government will press for a US and NATO response to assess its response to such moves,” former Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan wrote in his analysis of China for ABC News.
“And while these are a few contingencies, China wants to be confident in the West’s response to future aggression, including an attack on Taiwan.”
Source: I News
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