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Will China face sanctions because of the war with Ukraine? US looks to Europe for support, but analysts warn of global repercussions

The US has shown willingness to impose additional sanctions on China for its support of Russia, but questions remain about how comprehensive and far-reaching the restrictions could be, as the consequences for the rest of the world could be “catastrophic.”

Washington is reportedly recruiting allies to help impose sanctions on China if it supplies Russia with weapons or “lethal support,” Reuters reported, citing unnamed US officials familiar with the matter.

While it is not clear what the sanctions might be, preliminary negotiations are currently underway to assess how receptive countries, especially the G7 countries, are to such a move.

China is no stranger to US sanctions and has been subject to restrictions in recent years. Most recently, the US blacklisted Chinese tech companies accused of trading with Russia and imposed sanctions on Chinese space companies in response to an alleged spy balloon that flew over North America last month.

Analysts believe the new sanctions against China will be much the same: targeted restrictions on Chinese companies doing business with the country’s military-industrial complex, higher export duties, or a ban on foreign investment in Chinese companies.

Such measures would hurt Beijing’s strained economy, which is recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic and coping with a shrinking workforce.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (left) meets with Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gan on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers' meeting in New Delhi on March 2, 2023.  - MANDATORY CREDIT
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang on the sidelines of the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in New Delhi (Photo: Russian Foreign Ministry/Getty)

Wider sanctions would do massive damage to the rest of the world, a worry that could cost US support from European countries whose consumers are already grappling with an energy crisis fueled in part by sanctions against Russia.

“We won’t see the same level of sanctions as we did on Russia, which would be a disaster for the global economy,” said Sam Bresnik, a fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technologies in Washington and a former Carnegie analyst. China.

“Sanctions should bite a bit, but not completely alienate China.”

The International Monetary Fund estimates that China’s GDP will grow by just 3.2 percent this year, compared to 8.1 percent in 2021. A further drop in demand in China will particularly hit developing countries, which rank oil, soybeans and other commodities as the second largest shipments to China. world. largest economy. It would also disrupt the supply chain for consumer products, microchips and other technical components supplied to Chinese manufacturers from the US, Europe and Japan.

Rana Mitter, director of the China Center at Oxford University, said sanctions on Beijing “would lead to a much bigger global economic crisis than sanctions on Russia.”

“Chinese manufacturing is still included in many global supply chains, and large Western and Japanese companies have invested heavily in manufacturing in China in sectors such as automotive,” he added.

“Coordinated sanctions are only possible if there is an immediate serious threat that cannot be dealt with otherwise, because the cost for both sides will be very significant.”

China has denied claims that it is considering sending arms to Russia, and the US has not provided public evidence to support such claims.

U.S. officials, including those at the Treasury Department, have taken steps to counter Russian support for China through unofficial channels at the staff and diplomatic levels, sources told Reuters. This comes in addition to direct warnings, including in meetings between US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and between US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and senior Chinese diplomat Wang Yi on the sidelines of the global security conference in Munich.

The possibility of further sanctions against China could serve as a “warning shot,” said John Bryson, professor of corporate and economic geography at the University of Birmingham.

“It’s about shaping and containing political dialogue,” he said.

“That explains why there are no definitive details here, as this is a conversation that has begun and may never take place.”

Asked if the UK is participating in talks with the US about possible sanctions against China, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office said it would not comment on future appointments.

Source: I News

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