Germany says goodbye to nuclear power in times of energy uncertainty

Germany is saying goodbye to nuclear power this Saturday by shutting down its last three reactors, a decision marked until the last moment by intense and heated debate, even more polarized by the recent energy crisis.

In 2011, in the aftermath of the Fukushima disaster, the decision of the conservative government of Angela Merkel was approved by an overwhelming majority in the German parliament – 513 votes in favor and 79 against – but the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine has rekindled debate about the way to this Saturday produced 5% of the electricity consumed in Germany.

The end of operation of the last three operating reactors – Isar 2, Neckarwesthiem 2 and Emsland – was originally scheduled for December 31, 2022, but the executive branch, chaired by the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz, delayed its completion by three months after the “stress” tests that the electrical system was subjected to. shortly before winter revealed vulnerabilities.

However, and already in the last phase of the shutdown, German industrial organizations warned of the possible consequences for the sector affected by the high cost of electricity, while the Christian Democratic opposition, as well as the liberal partners of the government, proposed various formulas for postponing the shutdown of the reactors.

In turn, about two dozen scientists, including two Nobel Prize winners, called on Friday to keep the last three power plants running to meet climate goals, given the increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions caused by higher coal consumption last year, while while a survey commissioned by the public television ARD showed that 59% of Germans currently do not accept the rejection of nuclear energy.

Speaking to the Spanish agency Efe, energy market specialist Jonas Egerer explained that the current situation is partly due to the fact that after 2011 the government did not take measures to switch to a fully renewable system, having previously conceived gas-fired power plants as a long-term technological bridge to electricity supply, thereby accepting the growing dependence on Russian gas.

A professor at the Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg points out that the last-minute decision to extend the life of the reactors by three months was mainly due to the low output of hydroelectric power plants in 2022, but, in his opinion, “with proper preparation” of the risks There are no deliveries for next winter.

However, he warned that under certain scenarios, especially if gas becomes more expensive, reduced supplies could lead to higher electricity prices in the German wholesale market, so that the final cost and additional use of fossil fuels “could vary greatly depending on various factors.” frame factors.

Energy expert Anke Herold, on the other hand, is more confident about the future: “In general, the electricity supply in Germany in 2023 is very reliable, and the production that is lost in nuclear power plants can be easily compensated,” he said. Efe said.

The director of the independent research center Öko-Institut adds that “it is unlikely that greenhouse gas emissions in Germany will increase again, as they did last year, since the offset will be mainly based on renewable energy sources.”

According to the details, the three reactors still in operation generated a total of 33 terawatt/hour in 2022, and in the same year, newly installed wind and photovoltaic power plants generated an additional 20 terawatt/hour, to which will be added in 2023 13 more. which compensates for the gap left by nuclear energy.

In addition, Herold argues that the 26.3 terawatt-hour surplus of electricity generation in 2022 is nearly equal to that generated by three reactors, and if that is not enough, then fossil fuel power plants have an installed capacity greater than it is possible. currently in use.