The centenary of the Republic of Turkey coincided with an extremely difficult period in the life of the country. The elections on May 14, 2023 promise to be the most dramatic in Turkey’s recent history. Turkish society is polarized, sociological surveys show comparable support among the population for the two main candidates for the presidency.
We discuss the expectations, hopes and problems with which the people of Turkey are approaching the fateful elections with a Turkologist, a researcher at the INION RAS Middle East and Post-Soviet Department. Alina Igorevna Sbitneva.
Red Spring AI: Considering the judgments that have recently fallen on the current Turkish authorities, do you think that Recep Tayyip Erdogan still has a chance to win the presidential election?
Alina Sbitneva: The question is extremely interesting. After the catastrophic earthquake on February 6, 2023 in the provinces of Gaziantep and Kahramanmarash, the Turkish leader was indeed the target of harsh criticism from the opposition – both Meral Aksener of the Good Party and Erdogan’s main rival in the elections. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) Party. All of Turkey wondered what would happen to Erdogan’s health if he took part in the refueling ceremony at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant. Turkish citizens worried for two days about his ability.
In fact, all pre-election events and meetings were suspended. But I cannot say that they would have given Erdogan special bonuses, even if he had participated in them. Everyone in Turkey has long known and understood everything about him and his main rival.
Red Spring AI: Do you think that no step by the ruling party and the opposition can change the final alignment?
Alina Sbitneva: There are two weeks left before the elections; I think that now it will not be possible to radically change the proportion of public support. Although Erdogan is an excellent orator, his favorite campaign tactic is to travel to the southeast of the country, where a fairly conservative part of the population that supports him prevails, and actively campaign there.
Red Spring AI: Turns out he could have been sick until May 14, to prove he’s alive just before Election Day, and wouldn’t this have had a serious impact on the outcome of the vote?
Alina Sbitneva: No, it’s still an exaggeration. Both Vice President Fuat Oktay and presidential spokesman Ibrahim Kalin immediately announced that he was in good health, they say, “don’t wait.”
Of course, he certainly wouldn’t withdraw his candidacy, but one can only guess how his long absence might affect the electorate. Erdogan’s traditional support base will certainly not change their minds, but it cannot be ruled out that a part of the voters will vote for a younger candidate, such as Sinan Ogan or Muharrem Ince. People may not be willing to vote for a candidate whose health condition is uncertain.
Red Spring AI: And what are the real chances of the two candidates you named? They say about Inca that this is a “spoiler”, whose function is to get the votes of the opposition candidate Kılıçdaroğlu to ensure at least the possibility of a second round.
Alina Sbitneva: Yes, because it comes from the PRN.
Red Spring AI: Yes, exactly. And what does Sinan Ogan have? After all, two political heavyweights will be competing: Erdogan, who has ruled the country for 21 years, and his rival, whose candidacy was nominated by the united opposition.
Alina Sbitneva: Yes, there are no really worthy candidates in Turkey’s internal political arena who oppose Erdogan today. But he feels the weariness of his Justice and Development Party (AKP), and of himself.
Red Spring AI: But he did say that this was his last pick.
Alina Sbitneva: During his political career, he said a lot. But, for example, in 2017, in Turkey, amendments to the constitution were approved in a referendum, thanks to which his presidential term was “zero” and he had the opportunity to be re-elected two more times.
Given Turks’ fatigue with his figurehead, voters may want to vote for “young and promising” rivals to the current Turkish leader. In addition, Sinan Ogan comes from the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), which is part of the ruling coalition. The unknown candidate is not always the worst in the eyes of the voter.
A bold parallel can be drawn: Vladimir Putin, when he ran in his first elections, was also not well known.
Red Spring AI: Yes, but it was presented to the country in a special way.
Alina Sbitneva: Yes, analogies are conditional.
Red Spring AI: Continuing your analogy, is it likely that after the victory, having adjusted processes in light of health issues, Erdogan will go out on another memorable date with the words: “I’m tired, I’m leaving. Here is my successor?
Alina Sbitneva: I think Erdogan is too ambitious for that. He will fold his line to the end.
Red Spring AI: And yet, developing the theme of a successor, today’s Turkey is very much Erdogan’s Turkey. Are there followers of his line who will “pick up the flag” when Erdogan leaves the political scene?
Alina Sbitneva: There are no obvious successors, but, in my subjective opinion, there is the New Welfare Party, headed by Fatih Erbakan, the son of Erdogan’s political mentor Necmettin Erbakan. Let us remember that Erdogan himself left the Islamist parties in which he participated before the formation of the AKP.
Red Spring AI: I’m not talking about institutionalism, of course, new political forces will appear. Rather, I’m talking about who the current government can bet on.
Alina Sbitneva: Yes I understand. The figure of Fatih Erbakan is interesting precisely when viewed from this angle. They recently met with Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His party, which has virtually no support, suddenly became part of the ruling coalition, the “People’s Alliance.” I consider this a signal gesture from the current government. Furthermore, Erdogan knows Erbakan Jr. well and knew his father. And most importantly, his views are close: political Islam, conservatism. Therefore, attention should be paid to the development of this plot.
Red Spring AI: Suppose the opposite happens: the united opposition wins. The system is already built according to certain principles and to solve certain problems: can they make sudden moves without destabilizing the situation? For example, to announce a reorientation of foreign policy priorities.
Alina Sbitneva: They can advertise whatever they want. But a significant part of the population simply does not understand many of the actions. Particularly nationalistic part of the Turkish citizens. Therefore, as is often the case, if they come to power, they will be forced to continue on their current course, at least for the first time.
But you need to understand that even now the opposition continues Erdogan’s “double chairs”. Literally on April 27, Kilicdaroglu again publicly declared that he did not want to break ties with Russia. And the opposition adviser on the Russian leadership, journalist Khakan Aksai, confirmed this in his article based on the results of a certain “secret meeting of Turkologists in Moscow.”
Red Spring AI: Were you at this secret meeting of Turkologists?
Alina Sbitneva: No, I wasn’t. And it is not clear what kind of meeting it was, who participated in it, it is not made public. Let’s just say we take our word for it. But his statements are quite contradictory: recently, the leader of the Turkish opposition promised, if the opposition comes to power, to remind Russia of Turkey’s membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.
He also promised to conduct a “review of the Akkuyu project”; these are very serious statements. Now, there is a reluctance to break ties with Russia and join the (anti-Russian) sanctions.
The CHP has definitely been a pro-Western US/EU oriented party for quite some time. In their pre-election speeches they stated that if they came to power, there would be no problem with Sweden’s entry into NATO.
Red Spring AI: Alina, thank you for the interview.
Source: Rossa Primavera
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.