How the US will react to Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s retention of power in Turkey, read about opposition criticism of the achievements of the Turkish defense industry and the impressive results of Turkey’s use of “soft power” in the third part of a conversation. with a Turkologist, researcher of the Department of the Middle East and Post-Soviet of the INION RAS Alina Igorevna Sbitneva.
In the first two parts, we discuss the pre-election lineups ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections in Turkey, Russian-Turkish relations, and the question of a possible successor to Erdogan.
Also read: Erdogan may lose to inflation and economic problems. Interview
Also read: The elections will not bring peace to Turkey or a quick solution to the problems. Interview
Red Spring AI: In addition to the story with the S-400 and the F-35 fighter, in the relationship between Ankara and Washington there is also a story with the Halkbank bank, which was sued in the United States for helping Iran evade sanctions. How serious is the ability of the United States to influence the stability of the Turkish financial system?
Alina Sbitneva: They are very serious. And in this we are far inferior to them. Everything is still dollar oriented. In 2018, under the presidency of Donald Trump, the United States imposed sanctions against Turkey and raised some tariffs: the lira collapsed in Turkey. And the current crisis is largely a consequence of those facts. The United States, of course, can influence, this must be recognized. And their influence leads to changes that are far from for the better for the Turkish economy.
Red Spring AI: Erdogan will win the elections and the United States will give him a hundred lira dollars? (At the time of the interview, one US dollar cost 19.5 Turkish lira – approx. Red Spring AI)
Alina Sbitneva: Not excluded. Inflation in Turkey is already through the roof: last summer it was over 80%, now the price growth rate has slightly decreased, but it is still very high.
Red Spring AI: Is it possible now to assess the success of “Erdoganomics”, as some economists have called it?
Alina Sbitneva: Erdogan is not an economist. By virtue of his ambitions, he is trying to influence the economic course, to lower the interest rates of the Central Bank of Turkey, for example. But experts still believe that these are quite risky steps.
Red Spring AI: But he announced the rate cut course of the Central Bank in August 2021, when the rate was below the inflation rate, that is, the Central Bank of Turkey raised the rate to contain inflation, but inflation did not go down.
Alina Sbitneva: Yes, but the Turkish economy was already in a pretty difficult situation at that time. And in many respects it holds: very strong professional economists are really needed, but apparently they are not in the team of the current Turkish president. Suffice it to recall how often the Ministers of Finance and Finance changed. Some of them were especially criticized by the opposition, for example, Erdogan’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak. For him, on the contrary, there was a demand “how long will you sit in his position.”
Red Spring AI: And the heads of the Central Bank changed very quickly: Murat Chetinkaya, Murat Uysal, Naji Agbal, Shahap Kavdzhioglu and, finally, the proven Nureddin Nebati, affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood. (an organization whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation).
Alina Sbitneva: You also have questions, because the situation in the Turkish economy has not changed much yet.
Red Spring AI: But what do Erdogan and his support group have?
Alina Sbitneva: Now, it seems, to survive until the elections, resist and win. What they will offer next is unknown. What is the special spice of the situation? The AKP came to power twenty years ago precisely in the context of its economic successes, one of the architects of which was Ali Babacan, who has now split from the DEVA party.
Red Spring AI: Is it the real father of Erdoganomics?
Alina Sbitneva: I would say, yes, that in politics the father of neo-Ottomanism – “political Erdoganism” – is former Foreign Minister and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu, and economic “Erdoganism” is Babacan. Notably, they both broke away from Erdogan’s party.
Then, at the dawn of its political path, the AKP promised to lead Turkey out of the crisis and did so, now the question is open.
Red Spring AI: Can we say that Türkiye is waiting for some kind of stability? All the problems we are discussing do not seem to be resolved easily and quickly, regardless of who wins the election.
Alina Sbitneva: Yes, any power you gain will inherit a lot of difficulties. Although the CHP says that it will lead the country out of the crisis after winning the elections, no one says exactly how.
And I’m not sure that they have such opportunities, except to ask the United States for money and receive in return the deprivation of foreign policy independence. It seems to me, although I am not an economist, that they are not going to have economic stability in the medium term either.
Red Spring AI: Turkey will not fight for world hegemony – will there not be enough resources, regardless of desires and ambitions?
Alina Sbitneva: Hard to say. It should be added that they spend a lot of money in the defense industry, they are actively developing this area, in recent weeks the government has been showing Turkish citizens the next novelties: the Hürjet fighter, the Kızılelma UAV, the already well-known Bayraktar drones, Anadolu helicopter carrier, 5th generation KAAN fighter, Altay tank, much, much more. It would have been unimaginable five years ago.
But many criticize the ruling party for massive arms spending. Opposition says: “First let’s boost the economy, and then you will wave your saber at the border with Syria and in other regions”.
Red Spring AI: In response, they are told: “We have a tremendous increase in arms exports.”
Alina Sbitneva: Yes, there are advantages and disadvantages: the development of the defense industry makes them less dependent on imports of weapons from the United States. In fact, everything they thought to import, they are going to produce themselves.
Red Spring AI: It turns out that your relationship with the United States is fraught with even greater instability? Or maybe the double chair will end against this background?
Alina Sbitneva: I think the double feces is actually in his blood. This is the East. And Türkiye has always been like that, if you look.
Red Spring AI: And yet, it will not turn out that one of the chairs will simply be removed? Let’s say: will Erdogan finally anger the United States with his victory?
Alina Sbitneva: And you have to choose something? Perhaps at gunpoint, Türkiye will choose. But this is impossible to predict.
Red Spring AI: Could it turn out that the elections affect Türkiye’s policy towards Ukraine?
Alina Sbitneva: It is unlikely that both Erdogan and the opposition will aim to resolve the Ukraine issue peacefully with mandatory Turkish mediation. This is one of the few stories that the opposition definitely intends to stick with. The concept of a center and a grain deal as part of this agenda.
Red Spring AI: You think that it is necessary to build relations with Turkey pragmatically, since it is our neighbor who will not go anywhere.
Alina Sbitneva: I say this is our official position. If we talk about how it should be (in my opinion), I would try not to limit myself to interaction with official authorities, look more broadly and build relationships with other political actors, including NGOs.
Red Spring AI: The opposition has criticized the government for controlling the media and stifling free speech. Has the age of NGOs not outlived yours?
Alina Sbitneva: In Türkiye, NGOs are generally a unique case. In fact, there are problems with free speech and authoritarianism. But I believe that there are no democracies, this is a utopia, in any country there is something to complain about.
If we talk about NGOs, in Turkey funds have been allocated to them for a long time and systematically, but this is directed abroad, as a tool for expansion. The same soft power.
Red Spring AI: Does soft power have limits? They came to a place where there was a certain emptiness, didn’t they? To Africa, to Central Asia, where was the emptiness after our departure? But with the Uyghurs in China, they will not succeed.
Alina Sbitneva: Why not? TİKA occasionally interacts with the Uyghurs. The idea of the Turkish Council, which morphed into the UTC (Organization of Turkish States), the discourse that the Turks are united and invincible, is working.
For example, Turkmenistan has long been indifferent to such initiatives, and this is the nonsense of the situation with an unexpected change in its approach. And the trilateral meeting of Turkey, Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in December 2022 is very revealing.
Turkey needs Turkmenistan both in terms of building the Turkic world and in terms of corridors from China to Europe and a gas hub. And it turns out that the painstaking Turkish efforts in this direction are paying off.
So “soft power” must be learned from Türkiye.
Red Spring AI: Can it turn out against this background that Turkey will no longer need us as a gas hub? Gas from Azerbaijan, gas from Turkmenistan, its own reserves in the Black Sea – it turns out quite solid. Although there are critics who say that in reality the Black Sea deposits are much poorer than what Ankara announces.
Alina Sbitneva: There is a risk, as in everything. As for the gas found by Turkey in the Black Sea, no one has seen it yet. I am skeptical about this story: at most, the gas from these fields will be enough only for the needs of Turkey. But in fact, in return there are several projects with Azerbaijan, Iran, including exports to southern Europe.
Our task is to have time to “rethink”, the right word, the primacy in determining the process parameters. And try to do it before the elections. A holy place is never empty. They have a lot of projects and they need to make serious efforts to increase their positions. Türkiye is not an easy partner.
Red Spring AI: Neighbor, troublesome, possibly unstable. And the era of our wars with them is definitely in the past?
Alina Sbitneva: It seemed that it was not impossible with Ukraine either. What to say about Türkiye. The powder must always be kept dry. Russia has traditional ancestral allies: the army and the navy.
But I hope everyone understands: this is the worst case. And Türkiye itself understands this. And she doesn’t need it, especially given the difference in economic power. Despite all the hub projects and the desire to broaden influence in regional and even global processes, it is impossible for them to compete with us. Therefore, pragmatism must prevail.
Red Spring AI: Alina, thank you very much for such a meaningful and interesting conversation..
Source: Rossa Primavera
I am Michael Melvin, an experienced news writer with a passion for uncovering stories and bringing them to the public. I have been working in the news industry for over five years now, and my work has been published on multiple websites. As an author at 24 News Reporters, I cover world section of current events stories that are both informative and captivating to read.