Russian nuclear threat aims to prevent NATO involvement in conflict

The Chatham House think tank believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons are intended to “inspire fear in European countries and prevent NATO from being directly involved in the conflict.”

Putin’s latest nuclear threat this week also aims to “influence public support for Ukraine” by provoking fear of the hypothesis, according to an analysis by two analysts at Chatham House.

Analysts Julia Cournoyer and Marion Messmer recall that Russian nuclear doctrine dictates that Moscow will resort to nuclear weapons only if the country’s “territorial integrity” is threatened.

However, given the planned referendums on annexing parts of Ukraine, any attempt by Kyiv to reclaim those territories could be presented as a threat to Russia’s territorial integrity.

“The consequences of the use of nuclear weapons will be severe and require a decisive response – and therefore could quickly escalate into a full-scale regional war and possibly a full-scale nuclear war,” Chatham House’s analysis concludes.

The document also highlights that, until this week, the ambiguous nature of statements coming from the Kremlin sought to create “destabilizing uncertainty” by trying to “maintain a careful balance between threat and security” so as to cast doubt on Moscow’s real intention.

“However, in this latest nuclear threat, Vladimir Putin also warned that this was not a ‘bluff’, raising doubts as to whether the noise of the saber is a sign of weakness or strength,” Chatham House investigators stress.

The London-based think tank’s analytical paper also argues that “there would be great risks for Russia if Moscow were to detonate, even if it were just a low-strength nuclear weapon in rural Ukraine,” as the humanitarian and environmental impact of nuclear weapons is devastating.

“The use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is also likely to dispel Putin’s argument that the Russian invasion is aimed at saving Ukraine, and the Russian government risks losing popular and international support, as well as provoking a NATO retaliatory attack,” the researchers said. .

“The problem with nuclear weapons is that there are no small mistakes, and the gamble is always significant, as are the risks associated with it,” concludes the Chatham House document.