More than 61 million Turkish voters are calling for municipal elections on Sunday, with attention focused on Istanbul, where a bitter clash is expected between the current Social Democratic mayor-president and the Islamist AKP candidate.
Turkey’s municipal map has changed in recent decades: the conservative and Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP), led by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, dominates the center and north of the country, while the country’s main rival, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), a socialist democrat and nationalist) who are running 52-year-old Ekrem Imamoglu for re-election in Istanbul are dominant in the western and Mediterranean parts.
In the last municipal elections in 2019, the AKP won 740 municipalities compared with 240 for its rival, but decisive victories were concentrated in areas with the largest population and economic clout, according to the Efe news agency.
The CHP’s conquest of the Istanbul and Ankara city councils in 2019 represented a major setback for Erdogan, who is now focusing his speech on conquering Istanbul.
The city of 16 million is Turkey’s financial, social and cultural engine, as well as its symbolic significance: Erdogan served as city council president from 1994 to 1994, and it was in this great metropolis that he began his political career. , in a somewhat turbulent mandate.
The latest polls have given Imamoglu a lead of about 2% over his main opponent, former urban planning minister Murat Kurum, 47, the AKP chief who has ruled Turkey with an absolute majority for more than 20 years, including parliamentary elections. agreements, if necessary.
In the 2019 elections, Imamoglu enjoyed the support in Istanbul of two other important opposition parties: the center-right Good Party (IYI) and the People’s Democratic Party (HDP), now the Equality and Democracy Party (DEM). represents the pro-Kurdish left forces of the country.
In Sunday’s vote, both have now decided to nominate their own candidates, despite polls suggesting many of their usual voters will choose Imamoglu.
The Islamist Yeniden Refah (New Prosperity Party) party is also fielding its own candidate in Istanbul and attracting religious voters who are disappointed with Erdogan for pursuing commercial ties with Israel despite his criticism of the Gaza conflict.
If Imamoglu wins re-election, he has already been identified as a potential candidate for the Turkish presidency in the 2028 elections, for which Erdogan theoretically cannot run.
In statements on March 8, Erdogan acknowledged the end of his power for the first time, assuring that municipal elections on March 31 would be his last.
“I continue to work without a break. We are running without breathing, because for me this is the finale. With the powers that the law gives me, these elections are my last elections,” the 70-year-old head of state said then. years, has been in power as prime minister and then as president since 2003.
Critics interpreted these statements as a way to win over supporters facing economic crisis and runaway inflation, or even as a strategy to introduce constitutional amendments.
No changes are expected in Sunday’s elections in the capital Ankara, where the CHP also won in 2019 and where current mayor Mansur Yavas maintains a huge lead over his AKP rival.
The election race in Izmir, the country’s third city and CHP stronghold, is more competitive, with Social Democratic candidate Cemil Tugay starting with a lead of just 03%.
Defeats in Izmir and Istanbul would be a major blow to the opposition and allow Erdogan to consolidate his leadership, while a CHP victory in the two major cities would strengthen the Social Democratic camp and help it recover from May’s presidential election defeat. and legislative elections.
A victory for Erdogan’s party could also encourage the Turkish leader to push for new constitutional changes that would allow him to compete outside legal restrictions, the Associated Press (AP) news agency reported.
Local analysts acknowledged that an AKP victory, especially in Istanbul, could push Erdogan, 70, to adopt a new constitution that would allow him to run after 2028, when his second term ends.
Erdogan and his allies currently lack the seats in parliament to impose a new constitution, but an electoral triumph could change the position of several conservative lawmakers.
In the predominantly Kurdish regions of southeastern Turkey, MEM is projected to win a majority of municipalities. It is not yet known whether the party will be authorized to support them, AP points out.
In previous years, Erdogan’s government has removed municipal officials elected for alleged links to outlawed Kurdish fighters, replacing them with Ankara-friendly civil servants.
Author: Lusa
Source: CM Jornal
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