ISS believes war in Ukraine and economic downturn will affect elections in Africa

African strategy and security analysts warn of a direct impact of the global economic downturn, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and further food shortages on more than a dozen electoral processes the African Union will support this year.

In a recent analysis by the Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS) and the African Union Peace and Security Council (PSC), they warn that “failure to deal with pressure is likely to increase the susceptibility of electoral processes to violence and contested outcomes.” “.

Elections were scheduled in 2023 in 15 African Union (AU)-monitored countries, some of which have already taken place, in which states will face the challenges of past years, in addition to “the effects of the pandemic, the global economic downturn, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, increased instability and lack of food,” they said.

Nigeria, whose presidents were held in February, Sierra Leone and Zimbabwe “are countries to watch” with more attention, hinders ISS Pretoria’s analysis of the role that the AU Commission can play in driving the trend towards peaceful elections in 2022 (as in Kenya and Lesotho).

Elections in Nigeria were marked by technical glitches and delays in the transmission of results electronically, drawing criticism from voters, mostly supporters of the two opponents, who disputed the results, alleging “manipulation” had taken place.

A court in Nigeria has agreed that the electoral authorities have reconfigured used cars, and the decision is expected to be the first step in a long legal battle that follows the victory of Bol Tinubu, the ruling party’s candidate.

In addition to the pressure of internal and external factors, this year’s elections are taking place without the adoption of the main recommendations (of the African Union) for the elections, experts from the Institute for Strategic Studies say.

One example is that the AU Election Observation Mission offered Nigeria the opportunity to reform campaign finance to reduce the cost of running candidates, especially for women.

“To date, the legislation on party financing has not changed, which allows the flow of political entrepreneurs to continue its movement. The recommendation on gender also remains unimplemented as only one of the 18 presidential candidates this year is a woman.”

In Sierra Leone, which has elections scheduled for June 24, “rising political tensions, inflation and subsequent civil strikes could increase the chance of violence before and after elections if the situation is not properly managed,” ISS warns.

Past elections have been characterized by intimidation of female candidates, hate speech and violent inter-party and intra-party clashes.

The African Union Mission made recommendations to the government and other national authorities, but “Freetown followed only one suggestion by passing the Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment Act,” the analysis explains.

In Zimbabwe, opposition parties have hailed 2023 as a year of civic action, and massive protests are expected ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for July.

“Long-standing problems persist. The independence of the Electoral Commission of Zimbabwe is once again in question” and “the story of decades of repression against the opposition and civil society continues,” the ISS analysis says, which recalls that the Zimbabwean authorities recently deregistered 291 non-governmental and civil organizations.

Analysts report that due to the uniqueness of member states’ challenges in 2023, “the AU, in addition to general support, will have to consider individual intervention, technical support, preventive diplomacy and long-term commitment.”

In addition, based on an analysis of the AC reports and its campaign missions, the ISS believes it is worth considering “whether the cost of observation missions is commensurate with their added value and effectiveness, given the many independent stakeholders in space and slowness.” when making recommendations.

He also questions whether the AU should conduct observation missions “in countries that have not ratified the African Charter on Democracy, Elections and Governance”, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gabon, Libya, Swatini and Zimbabwe, for which the UA will send missions to 2023.

“Ultimately, it is the member states that must implement reforms and laws to improve electoral processes, but the AU has an equal and shared responsibility for not stamping the election results,” recommends the ISS.